Raffaele Ornello, MD
Wafa AH Wolfe CDA, Emmett E, Roth GA, Johnson CO, and Wa Y. Burden of Stroke in Europe: Thirty-Year Projections of Incidence, Prevalence, Deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years. Stroke. 2020;51:2418–2427.
Making projections about the future of stroke is important, due to the high burden of the disease in the general population and especially among the elderly. However, it is hard to provide accurate estimates due to the high number of variables to take account of.
In the present study, which used data from the Global Burden of Diseases 2017, the authors considered two variables, namely time and GDP per capita, to estimate variations in stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost from 2017 to 2047 in 28 European countries. The authors’ statistical model predicted a slight increase (+3%) in stroke incidence, a striking 27% increase in stroke prevalence, fewer deaths (-17%) and DALYs lost (-33%).